Although but nothing but speculation at this point, the timing does seem right. Apple has a history of discontinuing support for hardware older than about two years. The iPhone 3GS was released on June 19, 2009. This practice of ruthlessly ending upgrade support is often criticized but Apple’s willingness to kill off products (see: iPod Mini) allows them to innovate. Without the anchor that legacy products create, Apple is free to move in new directions quickly and take full advantage of newer and faster hardware.
We won’t know what new features will be in iOS 5 until WWDC 2011 (June 6 – 10), but it’s likely that there will be some cutting edge new things that require horsepower that the iPhone 3GS just can’t provide. Apple had performance trouble with iPhone 3G users that upgraded to iOS 4, so you can bet they will try to avoid similar problems with iOS 5. Even if Apple chose to allow iOS 5 to run on the 3GS, it’s likely that the performance would be sub-par.
iPhone 3GS owners, it’s time to start warming up your credit cards for September!
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